Poker Odds Y Outs
Poker Odds And Outs

For instance if you are on a straight draw where you have eight poker outs to hit on the river than your poker odds are 38-8, or simplified, 6-1. That means you’ll get there just under 20% of the time. Let’s say the pot has $90 in it and the other person just made a bet of $10. Poker odds can be used to assess whether your play has a positive expectation if you know the basic chart of ‘outs’ that will improve your hand. A Full Outs Chart is Below - Here are the most common poker outs: 4 Cards to a Flush with 2 cards to come: Odds = 1.9/1 (35%) 4 Cards to a Flush with 1 card to come: Odds = 4.1/1 (19%). Chances of catching 1 of N outs post flop. Note: No need to memorize this table, these percentages can be estimated rather easily. Multiply outs x 4 to estimate catching on the turn or river, and multiply outs x 2 to estimate catching exactly on the turn or exactly on the river. Basic Poker Odds Chart You can use this simple odds chart for calculating odds and probabilities while playing, helping you to decide which bets to make. It has basic hand odds given the number of. Poker odds calculate the chances of you holding a winning hand. The poker odds calculators on CardPlayer.com let you run any scenario that you see at the poker table, see your odds and outs,.

We have already seen how the relative strength of a poker hand can increase or decrease as flop, turn and river is dealt. For example A♣A♠ is a big favourite against A♥K♥ pre-flop, but becomes a huge underdog if the flop comes Q♥8♥2♥.

If you have a hand that is probably behind, but has the potential to improve to a winner, you need to decide whether it is worth continuing with it through the various streets, and how much you are prepared to pay to do so.

This article explains the calculations required to make the right decision about “drawing hands”, ie, hands that will need to connect with later community cards to win.

In short, you need to identify the cards that will improve your hand (known as “outs”), and then determine how significant an advantage you will have. Finally you will need to calculate your odds of winning and whether the pot size makes the whole process worthwhile.

You need to use some basic mathematics to help you make correct decisions.

Calculating Outs

“Outs” are the cards left in the deck that improve your hand and hopefully win the pot at showdown.

Example with a flush draw

You are holding A♥3♥ and the flop is: 7♥9♣K♥. If another heart appears on the turn or river, you make the flush, and unless another player has a full house or better, you will win the hand. (The board isn’t paired, so none of our opponents can have a full house yet.)

There are 13 cards of each suit in the deck. You hold two of them, and another two are on the board. Four of the 13 hearts have therefore already been dealt, meaning that there are still nine hearts left in the deck. This means you have nine outs.

Example with a straight draw

You have J♠10♠ and the flop is 6♣Q♥K♥. Now any ace or nine will complete your straight. There are four aces and four nines in the deck, so you have eight outs.

If one card is missing to complete a straight, you have four outs. For example, if your hole cards were A♥J♠ and the flop was K♣Q♥7♦, your outs would be 10♠10♣10♥10♦.

Example with a straght draw and overcards

You have K♥J♥, and the board is A♠10♦2♣. One of the four queens in the deck will make you a straight. If your opponent has a middle pocket pair, e.g. 9♣9♥, then you have additional outs, as any king or any jack would give you a higher pair.

In this case, the number of your outs would increase to ten (four queens, three kings, and three jacks).

Example with a set against a flush draw

If you hold 7♦7♥ and hit a set on a board showing 2♠7♠J♠, you have a pretty strong hand. But it is not definitely a winner and could already be behind if any of your opponents has two spades in their hands.

However, you still have the chance here of improving your hand even further. There are seven cards that could make you a full house or better (a seven, three remaining twos and three remaining jacks), or the turn and river could be the same rank, which would also give you a full house.

Example with a straight draw AND a flush draw

You hold 6♥7♥ and the board is 4♥5♣J♥. You have both an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw. This means you have nine outs to make the flush and eight outs to make the straight. At the same time, you have to consider that two cards are counted twice (in this case the 3♥ and the 8♥), which have to be subtracted. Therefore you have a total of 15 outs here.

Poker Odds Y Outs

Hidden Outs

Although the term “out” typically refers to a card that improves your hand, there are also sometimes “hidden outs”, which help you because they reduce the value of your opponent’s hand.

Example of hidden outs

You hold A♣K♣ and your opponent has 3♥3♠. The board is J♦J♠5♣6♦. Not only would the three kings and the three aces give you a higher two pair than your opponent, but any six or five would help as well. This is because with a five or six, the board contains two pairs that are both higher than your opponent’s pocket threes, meaning that the fifth card, the kicker, would decide the outcome of the hand. Your ace is the best possible kicker.

In this instance, you have 12 outs, six of which are hidden.

Discounted Outs

Advanced players don’t only calculate their own outs when on a draw. They also ask themselves what hand their opponent has, and whether one of the cards they hope to appear might also give the other player an even better hand. Cards like this are known as “discounted outs”.

Let’s look at the straight draw example again:

You have J♠10♠ and the flop is 6♣Q♥K♥. You have calculated eight outs so far (four aces and four nines).

But how will your outs change if one your opponents has two hearts e.g. 7♥6♥ and is therefore drawing to a flush? In this example, two of your outs, i.e. A♥ and the 9♥, would give your opponent a better hand – even if you hit your straight. This means you have to discount both cards from your outs. You would now only have six outs, which significantly reduces your chances of winning the hand.

In general you should take a pessimistic approach when it comes to discounting outs, as it is better to discount one out too many than one too few!

Probability and Odds

There are two very simple rules of thumb for calculating the probability of improving your hand using your outs:

The probability of hitting a draw on the next card is: [number of outs] x 2

The probability of hitting a draw on the turn and/or river is: [number of outs] x 4

A flush draw on the turn

You have a flush draw on the turn (nine outs). The probability of hitting the draw is [number of outs] x 2 = [winning probability in percent]:

9 x 2 = 18%

A straight draw on the flop

You have a gutshot straight draw (four outs) on the flop and want to know the probability of making a straight with two cards to come. The rule of thumb is: [number of outs] x 4 = [winning probability in percent]:

4 x 4 = 16%

Calculating Odds

Probabilities can be displayed as a ratio or odds, which is very helpful when playing poker.

Odds describe the ratio between the probability of winning and losing.
The winning probability is calculated as before. The losing probability is therefore:
[Losing probability] = 100% – [winning probability]

It’s best to commit the most important odds to memory, instead of having to calculate them again and again..

Examples of calculating odds

With middle pair:

You are holding A♥8♣ on a board of K♠8♥3♣2♦. You’ve got middle pair. Assume that your opponent has top pair, with K♣Q♦ for instance.

You

Poker Odds And Outs